COP30 ends weakly but with hope for external action

The UN climate conference COP30 ended on a weak note on Saturday with a failure to agree to phase out fossil fuels, even though more than 80 countries backed such a plan.

A group of oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia, India and China blocked an agreement to phase out the use of oil, gas and coal, arguing that they still need fossil fuels to grow their economies.

In the final meeting, a representative for Saudi Arabia reportedly said: “Each state must be allowed to build its own path, based on its respective circumstances and economies.”

The final deal agreed in Belem, called the Mutirão, omitted to mention fossil fuels but Brazil presented the idea of roadmaps on deforestation and fossil fuels being drawn up outside of the COP process.

The possibility of a future roadmap for fossil fuels without the need for a consensus at COP has been popular, though critics point out that it has no legal standing.

The proposal to phaseout fossil fuels did gain a lot of momentum during the two weeks of COP30, gathering support from 82 countries, including the UK, Germany, Spain, France, Chile, Kenya, Colombia, Sweden, Portugal and Mongolia.

Colombia also issued a declaration outlining elements of what a roadmap on fossil fuels might look like, and announced that it will hold a conference next April, co-sponsored by the Netherlands, on the subject.

At COP28 in Dubai two years ago, countries agreed for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels” (TAFF). It was a landmark resolution, but no clear no goals were set — no deadline for a phaseout, nor any other details, were decided and many petrostates and developing countries subsequently tried to discredit the notion.

At COP29 in Baku last year, proponents of TAFF tried to introduce a further resolution to strengthen it, but they failed, which some see in part as a failing of the Azerbaijani COP presidency.

Once again in Belém, TAFF bitterly divided countries. There’s “significant resistance” to the idea of a fossil fuel road map, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago warned journalists mid-COP.

Mixed reaction

UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband said over the weekend that despite no fossil fuel agreement being reached, COP30 was still a “step forward.” He added: “I would have preferred a more ambitious agreement.”

For some, the fact that the talks did not either collapse or reverse past climate agreements provided some measure of success, after a COP that had no shortage of drama or interruption, with attendees needing to be evacuated twice — first due to protesters breaking into the venue, and second, due to a fire that burnt a hole in the roof.

“We knew this COP would take place in stormy political waters, said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in a written statement on Saturday. “Denial, division and geopolitics has dealt international cooperation some heavy blows this year,” he lamented.

Yet “amid the gale-force political headwinds, 194 countries stood firm in solidarity – rock-solid in support of climate cooperation. 194 countries representing billions of people have said in one voice that “the Paris Agreement is working”, and resolved to make it go further and faster,” he added.

COP30 did manage to create “momentum for the end of fossil fuels,”  the Brazilian Climate Observatory said in emailed comments on Saturday.

“The most important issue of this COP was left out of the formal decisions. Despite growing support from countries for President Lula’s call to build roadmaps to end deforestation and move away from fossil fuels, it was not possible to do so within the formal UNFCCC process, which requires consensus,” said Stela Herschmann, Climate Policy Specialist at the Brazilian Climate Observatory.

“But this is not the end. In 2026, we will see the process unfold from the independent initiative of the COP30 presidency. We will have the conference in Colombia and there will be a report for COP31—where once again multilateralism will be put to the test, as we fight for it to face the causes of the climate crisis and be capable of limiting warming to 1.5°C,” she argued.

(Writing by Sophie Davies)