G20 summit a boost for COP29 but no concrete solutions: experts
With climate finance negotiations stuck at COP29 in Baku, all eyes turned to Rio de Janeiro as the G20 summit started on Monday.
The success of this year’s U.N. climate conference COP29 depends on whether the parties can reach an agreement on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Most countries’ updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) also hinge upon it.
Global South countries demand US$1 trillion a year by 2030, the amount climate finance experts say is necessary to address the climate crisis. Rich countries, that according to a recent Oxfam report have overestimated the real value of the former climate financing goal by up to US$88 billion, continuously rejected the request.
As conflicts of interest seemed insurmountable, the G20 felt like a last hope. By the end of COP29’s first week, U.N. Climate Chief Simon Stiell called on the leaders of the G20 nations to send a signal and help untangle negotiations in Baku.
For many specialists, they delivered.
“For the first time, under Brazil’s presidency, the G20 prioritised climate change and climate justice,” Karen Silverwood-Cope, Climate Director at WRI Brasil, told Gas Outlook.
The G20 Rio de Janeiro Leaders’ Declaration recognised “the need for rapidly and substantially scaling up climate finance from billions to trillions from all sources” and pledged support for the presidencies of both COP29 and COP30. It also acknowledged the international financial architecture needs reform and called for effective taxation of the ultra-high-net-worth individuals,” she said.
Silverwood-Cope pointed out that, while the declaration didn’t offer concrete solutions, given G20’s legitimacy in the current geopolitical landscape, the signals it sent are significant.
They also go hand-in-hand with what the UN Secretary-General António Guterres defended earlier at COP29: “Climate finance is not charity, it’s an investment.”
And the money is there. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, in 2022 alone, global subsidies to fossil energy reached an all-time high of US$1 trillion. Meanwhile, according to Oil Change International, the redirection of these subsidies combined with the taxation of billionaires could mobilise US$5 trillion a year.
Yet, Silverwood-Cope believes that, even if COP29 reaches an agreement on a trillionaire NCQG, it is likely that it will be up to next year’s COP30 to negotiate how countries will access the money. “We don’t have much time left, as there are only a couple more days for the end of COP29,” she said.
For Stela Herschmann, climate policy specialist at the Brazilian Climate Observatory, however, what G20 did was the bare minimum. “They recognised the problem with global financial architecture and reiterated the importance of the UNFCCC, but still left it up to the COP29 presidency to solve the dispute.”
Herschmann, like other specialists, also criticised the G20’s declaration approach to the Global Stocktake, as it fell short of reinforcing commitment with the phasing away from fossil fuels.