High expectations await new COP30 president
Announced last month, the president of COP30 was well-received both nationally and internationally. The internal and external challenges ahead, however, appear to be no greater than the high expectations placed upon him.
When Brazil finally announced André Correa do Lago as president of COP30, after months of anticipation, the name was well-received across the board. Unlike most COP presidents, usually revealed during the previous summit, Lago’s appointment was only made public in late January.
It appears, however, that he was worth the wait. Considered to be one of Brazil’s most experienced diplomats, Lago’s presidency was welcomed as a consensus. Known to have a good rapport across opposite political sectors, he was highly praised domestically by numerous climate and environment organisations, as well as by private institutions.
Internationally, names like UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell and Paris Agreement architect Laurence Tubiana also expressed satisfaction with the nomination.
“Lago’s name came as no surprise, as he had always been the frontrunner, but it did come as a relief,” Priscilla Santos, co-founder of Rede Amazônidas pelo Clima, told Gas Outlook.
“The long wait and the political disputes behind the scenes were very concerning. So, it was a relief that we ended up with someone highly qualified, rather than with a name that was just political quid pro quo,” she added.
In the wake of two consecutive COP presidents — in Dubai, followed by Baku, who worked at state-owned oil companies, Lago’s nomination is seen as a good omen for COP30, as the summit will be once again led by a technician with recognised experience of climate negotiations.
According to official government channels, the appointment of Lago “reflects Brasil’s commitment to the global sustainable development agenda and reinforces the country’s leadership in international climate negotiations.”
As Secretary for Climate, Energy and Environment at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 2023, Lago has been working on topics related to sustainable development since 2001. He directed the ministry’s Energy Department between 2008 and 2011, and the Environment Department between 2011 and 2013, when he also acted as Brazil’s chief negotiator for climate change. Lago also led the country’s negotiations during the two past COPs.
In 2024, the diplomat led meetings with CEOs, a “Call for Action” during New York Climate Week, and started a coalition for decarbonisation in Brazil’s transportation sector. Lago was directly involved in the drafting of Brazil’s new NDC and played a key role in coordinating G20’s Environment and Climate Sustainability Working Group, responsible for securing the High-Level Principles on Bioeconomy and the declaration that global climate finance needed to increase from billions to trillions.
But the challenges that await him are all but trivial. As the host of COP30, Brazil will have to address all that Baku’s summit last year was unable to achieve and reach new, more ambitious targets under the Paris Agreement, all whilst navigating a complex geopolitical context of growing climate denialism and low trust in multilateralism, in a world where average temperature increases exceeded 1.5°C for the first time.
Not to mention that Lago’s nomination came out the day after Donald Trump took office and signed an executive order withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. In his first speech after being named COP president, Lago recognised that, as the world’s largest historical greenhouse gas emitter, the country’s decision will “no doubt have a significant impact on preparation” for the summit.
One of his main obstacles, however, comes from inside the house: Brazil’s contradiction in trying to be a global climate leader, whilst defending expanding the borders of oil exploration to the Amazon basin.
“Opening new oil fronts is completely incompatible with a position of climate leadership and with the moment of climate crisis we’re already experiencing,” Stela Herschmann, climate policy specialist at the Brazilian Climate Observatory, told Gas Outlook. “We don’t agree with this stance and we will fight it with all available tools.”
Yet, while environmentalists see it as a conflicting sign from the country, neither Lago or President Lula da Silva see any inconsistencies. In an interview to the BBC Brasil, the COP30 president declared not seeing any contradiction between expanding oil exploration whilst demanding a transition to renewable energy. “Brazil, like all other countries, signed a commitment that was approved by consensus, according to which countries must find their own paths to move away from fossil fuels,” he said.
For Herschman, directly addressing the shift away from fossil fuels is one of the most expected outcomes of this year’s summit. “This is a difficult, but necessary conversation that must take place now. And Brazil is in a strong position to that, as a large economy and a developing nation that explores oil, which means we understand the needs of countries that depend on this sector,” she said.
To that, Santos added that, after this debate became dormant during COP29, it is expected that Brazil’s presidency will not only resume, but elevate it. She believes that, in spite of the contradictions, Lago and his team are well equipped to lead this debate. “It was Brazil that proposed the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities, and Lago is sure to lean into it as a strategy to navigate the negotiations.”
Specialists argue, however, that in order for that to happen, Lago will need to rely on the full support of president Lula, who some fear might not give the event and the climate agenda the centrality shown in 2022 when he volunteered the country to host COP30.
High expectations
According to The Guardian, COP30 is set to be one of the most consequential climate summits of the past years – and Brazil seems to be feeding into the hype. The country, considered to be one of the few still capable of dialoguing with all parts, anticipates reaching new commitments to reduce pollutant gas emissions, pursuing the goal of US$1.3 trillion a year for climate finance and, in Lago’s words, “accelerating the translation of everything that has already been negotiated into concrete actions.”
After three years of COP being held in countries under authoritarian regimes, one of the key points of expectation lies with civil society, projected to play a more central role at this year’s summit. “We will probably see large mobilisation and demonstrations, people taking to the streets of the city, beyond the limits of the UNFCCC’s Blue Zone,” said Santos.
She describes Lago as having a good rapport with civil society. “In previous summits, when he was ahead of negotiations, Lagos would meet with us to inform us about what had happened that day, which were the points of contention,” she said.
The COP30 president declared that “during this preparatory period, we will have a lot of dialogue with civil society because it is essential that they are involved in the process.” While Santos believes Lago understands the actions of civil society as part of the game, she also sees COP30 will put his good rapport to the test: “he knows to expect support from the civil society, but he should also count on resistance, especially concerning oil exploration in the Amazon Basin.”
Herschmann sees the high expectations of Brazil as the summit host and Lagos as its president as both a challenge and an opportunity: “The expectations are very high, but the challenges ahead are immense. Still, not to add even more to the expectations, I believe Brazil’s negotiation team is highly qualified. More than that, they are known to come up with creative alternatives when faced with a crisis.”
(Writing by Amanda Magnani; editing by Sophie Davies)