Investors commit to Polish offshore wind, but restrictions linger
Despite a challenging investment climate, Poland seems to be on the way to reach its 2030 target of 5.9 GW offshore wind capacity by 2030. But will the electricity reach the regions where it’s needed the most?
Equinor and Polenergia recently announced that they have decided to invest over US$ 7 billion to get two offshore wind farms in the Polish Baltic Sea up-and-running by 2028.
The Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms will have a combined capacity of over 1.4 GW and will complement ORLEN’s and Northland Power’s 1.2 GW Baltic Power wind farm which is expected to become operational next year.
The Bałtyk projects are backed by around 30 financial institutions, of which the European Investment Bank (EIB) is the biggest lender with around 700 million euros, according to Wind Europe, a Brussels-based association for the wind industry.
The wind farms are engineered for a lifespan of 30 years and will operate under 25-year Contracts for Difference (CfD). Under the CfDs, the projects have secured power prices at around EUR 71 per MWh (2021 price) for 25 years, indexed to inflation, according to Equinor.
Wojciech Jakóbik, an energy security analyst based in Warsaw, notes that the support scheme for offshore wind was introduced by the previous government led by the The Law and Justice Party (PiS) which lost power in Poland at the end of 2023.
“Challenging economics of the offshore wind sector might complicate the projects but there has been a second phase auction announced for 17th of December,” Jakóbik told Gas Outlook.
As for the December 2025 auction, Equinor and Polenergia announced in mid-June that they have submitted an application to the Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) for pre-qualification of the Bałtyk 1 offshore wind farm project to participate. The planned capacity of the wind farm – which would be the joint venture’s third in the Baltic Sea – is up to around 1.6 GW which makes Bałtyk 1 the largest offshore project in Poland.
Other offshore wind projects to look out for include Ørsted’s and PGE’s 1.5 GW Baltica 2 project for which FID was taken in January this year. Baltica 2, which will be located around 40 km off the Polish coast near Ustka, is expected to be fully commissioned in 2027.
Export limitations and opportunities
Poland’s bet on offshore wind comes as gas demand is expected to peak by 2030 and as the country tries to wean itself off coal for electricity generation. Yet there are challenges; interconnection between the north and south of Poland is limited, which means it could prove difficult to export the electricity to the demand centres in the more populous and industrial south.
“Polish state electricity network operator PSE is considering building an energy bridge connecting North and South with an HVDC cable. The project is in early stages now. There is a need for a solution like this because of the projected heavy concentration of energy generation from offshore wind farms and nuclear power in the Pomerania region,” said Jakóbik.
Meanwhile, a lack of grid connections are holding up a number of wind projects across Europe, Christoph Zipf, a spokesperson for Wind Europe, told Gas Outlook.
“Across Europe, countries need to invest in their electricity grids. That’s true for Poland as well,” he said.
“Grids are quickly becoming the number one bottleneck for the expansion of wind energy in Europe. Especially getting access to the grid is increasingly difficult.”
To this end, the European Commission is expected to release a Grids Package by the end of the year. The objective is to help upgrade and expand grids to support electrification and speed up permitting. A public consultation runs until August 5th.
Political climate
The speed of offshore wind development in Poland also hinges on political support. Right-wing historian and Donald Trump ally Karol Nawrocki was recently elected as Poland’s new president, and there are uncertainties linked to whether he will interfere in the Donald Tusk-led coalition government’s energy policy.
“Offshore wind forms part of Poland’s Energy Policy (PEP) until 2040. Legally, PEP 2040 does not impose any binding obligations on the president, as it only applies to government-subordinate bodies. This means that the president can make his own assessments and judgments, guided by his constitutional powers and responsibilities,” Dr Hab. Mariusz Swora, a regulatory expert on the European energy sector, told Gas Outlook.
“The National Security Bureau assists the president in determining whether a specific action or project aligns with energy security as a component of national security,” he added.
On June 10th, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal (TK) ruled by a majority vote that some EU energy and climate regulations including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) are incompatible with the Polish constitution and breach national sovereignty in choosing its energy policy and energy sources.
Bud Tusk, who sees the TK as illegitimate in its current form, is unlikely to take the ruling into account.
(Writing by Andreas Walstad; editing by Sophie Davies)