New study links heatwaves to fossil fuel emissions: COP29
A new report released by Carbon Brief during COP29 reveals that 24 previously impossible heatwaves have struck global communities.
(Baku, Azerbaijan) — The Carbon Brief study, published during COP29, cites scientific analyses showing that they would have had virtually no chance of happening without the extra heat trapped by fossil fuel emissions.
According to the report, it reveals that the most-studied extremes are related to heat (28%) and rainfall and flooding (24%), which together account for more than half of the events and trends in the map. The next-largest group is for drought (14%), followed by storms and cold, snow and ice (both 8%).
Carbon Brief said it drew on a number of sources as attribution studies for this research.
To keep track of this rapidly-growing field of research, the report mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather. It also includes more than 600 studies, covering almost 750 extreme weather events and trends.
The report noted that across all these cases, 74% were made more likely or severe because of climate change. “This includes multiple cases where scientists found that an extreme was virtually impossible without human influence on global temperatures. Around 9% of the events and trends in the map were made less likely or severe by climate change.
“This means that, overall, 83% of the events and trends included in the map were found to have been influenced by human-caused climate change. In the remaining 17% of cases, the studies either found no human influence (10%) or they were inconclusive (7%), often due to insufficient data,” it said.
Uneven data spread
The Carbon Brief map reveals the uneven distribution of studied extremes worldwide, with the vast majority in the global north.
The cases included in the map are dominated by extremes in Europe (22%), eastern and south-east Asia (22%) and North America (18%). In contrast, relatively few of the studied extremes are in central and southern Asia (4%), Oceania (1%) and North Africa and western Asia (1%), it said.
The report noted that the low data on developing countries is due to a lack of weather data and monitoring of extremes.
“Another factor is that scientists and their institutions that conduct attribution research are often themselves based in global-north countries. This imbalance is something that many attribution scientists are trying to address, putting a greater focus on extremes in countries that are often overlooked,” the report added.
Last week at COP29, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for early warning systems to protect people from extreme heat in what he described as this “era of climate catastrophe.”
“This is on track to be the hottest year in the history books. It has scorched countries and communities with temperatures that push the limits of human endurance,” he said in an address at COP29 in Baku.
“And around the world, we’ve seen record rains and hurricanes, historic fires, and deadly droughts,” he added.
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