Europe’s dependence on Russian, US gas deepens ahead of challenging winter
Though Europe has made energy security a key objective, its reliance on Russia and the U.S. for gas imports has only increased so far in 2026.
Europe’s dependence on Russian and U.S. gas has deepened in 2026 despite the ongoing goal to diversify import sources, exposing the continent to heightened geopolitical risks as it grapples with low gas storage levels this winter, according to a new report by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
Overall gas imports from both the U.S. and Russia to the European Economic Area (EEA) – which includes Norway – have increased in the first half of 2026, with the two countries taking up a larger share of Europe’s import portfolio compared to last year, the report showed.
Looking at LNG, Europe imported around 70 Bcm from non-EEA countries in the first half of 2026, about stable year on year. However, both Russian and U.S. LNG imports grew year on year, with imports from all other suppliers reducing in the same period.
Dependence on U.S. LNG is set to further intensify in 2027 as Europe aims to phase out Russian gas, exposing the region to pressure from the current U.S. administration to water down its climate targets, notably the EU Methane Regulation, already a topic of growing debate in recent months.
In July, the EU Commission agreed to pause until 2029 penalties for oil and gas companies that breach methane emissions standards amid intense lobbying by the U.S. and other countries.
The U.S. could use its dominant position to force “European buyers to accept binding long-term contracts for gas quantities” that exceed Europe’s needs, as well as exert influence on European governments over other issues, such as trade and IT and media regulation, Raffaele Piria, a senior fellow at Berlin-based Ecologic Institute and co-author of the report, told Gas Outlook.
There is also a risk that “high prices in the U.S. (may) trigger U.S. policy makers, including democrats to ask for limits on LNG exports,” he added.
Russian gas reliance
The growing share of U.S. gas in Europe’s imports has come at the expense of other suppliers, except for Russia, a trend which is at odds with the goal to phase out Russian imports by the end of 2027.
Under EU rules, member states had to submit by March 2026 their “national diversification plans” outlining their strategy to diversify oil and gas supplies. These plans have yet to be fully implemented, and their impact on Russian imports will be watched closely.
However, the EU definition of diversification “refers only to eliminating imports from Russia, ignoring other dominant suppliers,” the paper noted.
“This ‘selective blindness’ means that a Member State sourcing 100% of its gas from a single other country could claim full ‘diversification’ while being dependent on one single supplier.”
Moreover, plans to diversify gas import sources have to contend with the disruption to LNG flows arising from the war in the Middle East.
“The war in fact has reinforced the trend towards U.S. dominance and lower supply diversification in the EEA’s gas import portfolio by other means” which started in 2022.
Moving forward, despite new export capacity under construction in countries like Canada, Australia and Nigeria, the EU will likely become even more dependent on U.S. LNG if it succeeds in phasing out Russian gas by 2027, the report anticipated.
Low storage risks
Europe’s risk exposure is further heightened by the likely failure by countries to meet gas storage filling targets before the winter begins, the report also noted.
Europe is heading into winter with low storage levels “mainly due to failures to fill in Germany and the Netherlands, while other countries are on the path to fulfil their targets,” Piria said.
Multiple risk factors could lead to stronger demand for gas, including a cold snap, “non-availability in nuclear power plants (due to) technical failures, cyberattacks, other forms of sabotage” as well as low wind and hydro output.
On the supply side, Europe also faces the risk of reduced inflows of LNG due to Asian buyers outbidding European, as well as Russian and U.S. exporters curtailing shipments.
In light of that, European countries should aim to maximise storage injection ahead of the winter and at the same time launch public awareness campaigns encouraging consumers and companies to reduce gas consumption for heating, the researchers recommended.
In the medium and long term, they added, policymakers should seek to accelerate the energy transition away from gas and reduce supply risks by diversifying import sources.
