UN report flags progress on methane emissions but warns they’re still too high

A new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report launched at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, shows that emissions of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas, are still rising, though at a slightly slower rate than before.

The Global Methane Status Report, launched on Monday on the sidelines of COP30, shows that “while considerable progress has been made since the launch of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021, more work is required to align with the level of ambition and action needed to meet the Pledge,” the UNEP said in a press statement.

The report, which tracks gaps in efforts to cut methane, is produced annually by the UNEP along with the the Climate and Clean Air Coalition.

The report made it clear that methane is tied to natural gas production, stating that global methane emissions are still increasing, but new waste regulations in Europe and North America and slower growth in natural gas markets between 2020 and 2024 have “lowered current projected levels,” and that these levels are expected to reduce further by 2030 under current legislation compared with 2021 forecasts.

National action on cutting methane has the ability to deliver “historic progress,” the report said.

To be precise, Nationally Determined Contributions and national Methane Action Plans submitted by mid-2025 could translate into an 8% cut by 2030 below 2020 levels, it said, adding that if fully implemented “this would be the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions in history.”

However, the report warns that meeting the 2030 Global Methane Pledge target requires an increase in ambition – and fast. Proven measures across emitting sectors, including leak detection and plugging of abandoned wells in the oil and gas sector, need to be scaled up, the report stresses.

Methane mitigation is not expensive, with 80% of 2030 emissions reduction potential achievable at a low cost, the report says. More than 70% of the overall mitigation potential can be achieved by taking measures in the energy sector alone, it said, followed by waste and agriculture — at 18% and 10% of the total, respectively.

Full implementation of these reductions globally could prevent over 180,000 premature deaths by 2030, and all fossil fuel mitigation could be deployed at just 2% of the sector’s 2023 income, the report noted.

“This report is a crucial assessment of our progress and a key indicator of the work that’s required to meet the Global Methane Pledge goal,” said Julie Dabrusin, Canada’s Minister of Environment and Climate Change and Co-Convener of the Global Methane Pledge.

“In just four years, we have made improvements, but we must continue to drive faster, deeper methane cuts. Every tonne reduced brings us closer to cleaner air, more resilient communities, and a thriving global economy,” she added.

Inger Andersen, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UNEP, said that “reducing methane emissions is one of the most immediate and effective steps we can take to slow the climate crisis while protecting human health.”

Rachel Kyte, UK Special Representative for Climate, commented in a LinkedIn post, that the Global Methane Status Report “gives us reason to hope — and even more reason to act. We’re still seeing methane emissions rise, but we’re also seeing that actions — policies and regulation that governments have taken since Glasgow — are pointing us in the right direction.”

Cutting methane alongside CO2 is “absolutely critical if we’re going to meet the Paris Agreement, and we have tools that will help us do both: foremost among them, agreeing on a roadmap to manage the transition away from fossil fuels,” she stressed.

TAFF roadmap

At COP28 in Dubai two years ago, countries agreed for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels” (TAFF). It was a landmark resolution, but no clear no goals were set — no deadline for a phaseout, nor any other details, were decided. Many petrostates and developing countries subsequently tried to discredit the notion.

Since Dubai, little has changed. At COP29 in Baku last year, proponents of TAFF tried to introduce a further resolution to strength it, but they failed, which some see in part as a failing of the Azerbaijani COP presidency.

Once again in Belém, TAFF is dividing countries. There’s “significant resistance” to the idea of a fossil fuel road map, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago told journalists on Friday. Yet there is an important and growing list of 62 countries to date that support it, including the UK, Germany, Spain, France, Chile, Kenya and Colombia — and the most recent additions: Sweden, Portugal and Mongolia.

Colombia has also drawn up a “Belém Declaration on TAFF,” making clear its desire to co-operate on a transition away from fossil fuels, and has announced plans to host a first international conference on the phase out of fossil fuels next April.

However, according to a Bloomberg report, negotiators for developed countries — who asked not to be identified — said they thought opposition to a roadmap may be too strong for it to be included in the final outcome of COP30, and that work would instead focus on building a coalition of the willing to push ahead with a voluntary process.

More countries are expected to signal their commitment in the coming days, but few expect a plan on fossil fuels to be inked by the end of COP, whose last official day is this Friday, with some saying that a commitment to discuss TAFF over the next year or so may emerge instead.

(Writing by Sophie Davies)