Azerbaijan abandons climate target, risking COP29 talks
A new analysis finds that Azerbaijan, which is set to host the COP29 international climate negotiations in November, plans on increasing its emissions by more than 20 percent through 2030.
Azerbaijan, which is set to host the COP29 international climate talks in Baku in just over a month, is one of just a few countries that have weakened their climate targets over the past year, according to a new analysis.
Azerbaijan is a major producer of oil, gas, and petroleum products. Methane emissions from the energy sector continue to rise, and overall greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by as much as 20 percent through 2030, according to an analysis from Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
In fact, Azerbaijan “appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward,” the report found, which rated its record on climate action as “critically insufficient.”
The worrying trend raises serious questions about the COP29 talks in Baku in mid-November. Azerbaijan has not included the phaseout of oil, gas, and coal on the COP29 presidency agenda, despite last year’s talks in Dubai calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.
Climate Action Tracker notes that Azerbaijan is a victim of climate change, subjected to drought and water scarcity that is expected to increase in frequency and intensity. To the extent that Azerbaijan has pursued renewable energy, the government of Azerbaijan aims to free up oil and gas for higher levels of fossil fuel exports.
Europe has played a role in exacerbating that trend. Since the onset of war in Ukraine in 2022, Europe has searched for sources of gas supply that could replace imported gas from Russia. Azerbaijan promised to double its gas exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic metres per year by 2027, equivalent to about 10 percent of the European Union’s total gas demand.
“While Azerbaijan has a huge renewable resource, one that it could be deployed to create green hydrogen to export to the European Union, Europe’s hunger for fossil gas appears to be running the show,” Bill Hare, CEO of CAT partner organisation Climate Analytics, said in a statement. “The EU could look at how it could fund an Azerbaijani transition to a low carbon economy.”
The upcoming COP29 talks are important because governments from around the world will submit updated climate targets — called nationally determined contributions — where the expectation is that everyone ratchets up their climate ambition. The criticism towards Azerbaijan, as the host country, is that its poor record on climate change, and its insistence on increasing fossil fuel production, will undercut global action at a sensitive moment.
“Azerbaijan does not include a transition away from fossil fuels in its NDC or in the COP29 agenda,” Ana Missirliu from CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute, said in a statement. “This is not the kind of leadership we need in this crucial time of climate action as the world is increasingly being hit by catastrophic, climate-fuelled weather events.”