Global leaders’ climate commitments in doubt on cusp of COP29

The climate allegiances of an array of global leaders are in doubt just a few days before the COP29 international climate talks open in Baku, Azerbaijan.

U.S. President Joe Biden is not planning to travel to the event, according to White House sources, despite COP29 opening just a few days after the U.S. presidential election.

Meanwhile Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has already cancelled his trip to COP29,  with reports differing over whether a head injury last month was the reason Lula cancelled or because he wanted to prioritise other events.

In a further blow to the talks, a European Commission spokesperson told Reuters on Tuesday that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not attend the COP29 climate summit because of political developments in Brussels, despite the EU’s role as a supposed climate leader.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron will reportedly not attend either.

The no-show of some of the most important global leaders will exacerbate climate ambitions at the talks, which are being held in an authoritarian state for the third year in a row, and in a petrostate for the second consecutive year, following COP28 in the UAE last year.

Baku’s attachment to oil and gas is well-known — something which the autocratic President Aliyev has called its “gift from God.”

A new analysis by Climate Action Tracker found that Azerbaijan recently abandoned its 2030 emissions target.

And while Azerbaijan trumpets progress in expanding renewables at home, it is increasing oil and gas output in large part to supply the EU, which is using it as an alternative provider to Russia.

As such, whether any progress on a historic roadmap agreed at COP28 last year to transition away from fossil fuels is in doubt at the Baku talks.

The hard-won climate text agreed at COP28 called for a transition away from fossil fuels “in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” marking the first time that fossil fuels have been acknowledged in a COP text. It also called for the transition from fossil fuels to accelerate in this “critical decade” and gave 2050 as a net zero endpoint.

COP29 has also been billed as the ‘finance COP’, because it is time for countries to set a new global climate finance goal. Ahead of COP30, to be held in Brazil’s Amazon region next year, they also need to submit stronger national climate commitments.

For the first time in 15 years, countries at COP29 will need to agree to a new global finance goal, known as the new collective quantified climate finance goal (NCQG). This will update the target set in 2009, when developed countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change.

All eyes this year will also be on the G20 Leaders’ Summit, scheduled for November 18th and 19th in Rio de Janeiro — as in, at the start of the second week of COP29. This is of course even more significant because Brazil will be hosting COP30 next year.

This year’s G20 meetings in Brazil are seen as an important step to build on progress made at COP28 last year to transition away from fossil fuels, yet following G20 talks held in Brazil in September, campaigners have claimed some of the world’s largest economies including Saudi Arabia are turning their backs on that pledge. With less than a week to go before COP29 opens in Baku, countries’ climate commitments will soon be laid bare.

Stay tuned for Gas Outlook’s coverage from COP29 and the G20 Leaders’ Summit. We will be on the ground in Baku, tracking whether this year will see any more movement on fossil fuel phaseout, tackling methane issues and transitioning to renewable energy. We will be providing a COP29 daily newsletter live from the talks. Sign up for it here.