MIDI: Bangladesh’s ambitious, controversial coastal venture

The windswept coastline of beach city Cox’s Bazar’s, long known for salt pans, shrimp farms, and migratory birds, is now the epicentre of one of Bangladesh’s most ambitious — and controversial — development ventures.

The Moheshkhali–Matarbari Integrated Development Initiative (MIDI), launched in February 2024 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), promises to transform the region into a hub of energy, ports, and industrial growth. Yet beneath the rhetoric of progress lies a story of displacement, ecological peril, and mounting debt.

The MIDI project is part of Japan’s Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt (BIGB), aligned with its Free and Open IndoPacific (FOIP) strategy.

JICA’s master plan spans 37,000 hectares across Moheshkhali and Matarbari, envisioning three interconnected pillars — Energy hub — 13 gigawatts of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) thermal power, alongside terminals, floating storage and regasification units, and future hydrogen and ammonia facilities; Port hub — a deep-sea port with container and multipurpose terminals, designed as a gateway for international trade and trans-shipment, and Logistics and industry- Special Economic Zones, petrochemical complexes, and steel mills linked to the port infrastructure.

The plan is touted as a catalyst for foreign direct investment and job creation. Officials project 750,000 jobs, while the government has institutionalised the Moheshkhali Integrated Development Authority (MIDA) through an ordinance granting sweeping powers to acquire land, approve construction, and coordinate development.

Fossil fuel dependency, emissions burden

Yet critics argue that the energy blueprint is dangerously fossil fuel heavy. A study by the Coastal Livelihood and Environmental Action Network (CLEAN) estimates that the LNG and fossil fuel build-out under MIDI will emit 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over its lifetime—six times Bangladesh’s current annual emissions.

Far from being a “clean bridge fuel,” LNG’s lifecycle footprint — including extraction, transport, liquefaction, and regasification — can be 33 percent worse than coal over a 20-year timeframe due to methane leakage, the study reveals.

Concentrated thermal power plants threaten to create a toxic air-shed, with coal ash containing mercury, lead, and arsenic already raising health concerns.

JICA’s portrayal of LNG as a sustainable option has been branded “scientifically dishonest” by environmentalists, who warn of respiratory crises and ecological collapse in the region.

The human cost of MIDI is staggering. The master plan requires 72,957 acres of land, potentially displacing 776,000 people—the entire population of Matarbari Island. Already, 20,000 residents have been uprooted by the 1,200 MW coal power plant in Phase I, losing homes, schools, mosques, and burial grounds. Compensation processes have been marred by corruption, leaving families without meaningful redress.

Moheshkhali’s economy, rooted in salt cultivation and shrimp farming, faces obliteration. Salt farmers, with generations of specialised skills, cannot easily transition to industrial labour. Shrimp farms, vital to local livelihoods and exports, are being converted into industrial plots. For many, the promise of jobs rings hollow: displaced residents were largely excluded from construction work in Phase I, which went to outsiders and migrant labourers.

The environmental toll extends beyond emissions. Dredging and construction have disrupted the Kohelia River, worsening floods and altering plankton composition. The estuary, a vital fish nursery, now faces acoustic disturbance, propeller strikes, and erosion from increased maritime traffic. Mangrove forests, crucial for juvenile fish and coastal protection, are under threat.

Matarbari Island lies at the intersection of two major migratory bird routes — the Central Asian Flyway and the East Asian Australasian Flyway. Sonadia Island, nearby, hosts 25,000 migratory birds each winter, including critically endangered species like the Spoon-billed Sandpiper and Nordmann’s Greenshank. Habitat destruction from MIDI jeopardises these fragile populations, undermining Bangladesh’s ecological heritage.

Debt, subsidies, and sovereignty

Beyond environmental and social costs, MIDI raises profound economic questions. The project’s estimated investment of USD 60–65 billion over 30 years will be largely debt financed through JICA loans. Bangladesh already faces foreign reserve shortages, and LNG imports have driven gas tariffs up by as much as 779 percent.

In FY 2025-26 alone, the government allocated Tk 90 billion for LNG imports, while subsidies reached Tk 63.57 billion the previous year. Projections suggest annual LNG import costs could soar to USD 7.77 billion by 2047. Capacity charges for LNG power plants and terminals will add tens of billions more, straining the national budget and risking a sovereign debt crisis.

Critics describe MIDI as a “Japanese energy colony,” where finance, technology, and fuel are controlled by Japanese firms, while Bangladesh bears the risks. Companies like JERA, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo stand to profit from turbine sales, LNG trading, and terminal operations. For Bangladesh, the model undermines energy sovereignty and ties its industrial future to volatile global markets.

The urgency to establish MIDA, bypassing parliamentary processes during Bangladesh’s political transition in 2024, has raised eyebrows. The ordinance centralised authority under a chairman appointed by the Chief Adviser, reflecting external pressure to meet JICA’s timelines. Critics argue this governance model prioritises foreign interests over democratic accountability, leaving local communities voiceless in decisions that reshape their lives.

Supporters of MIDI highlight its potential to modernise Bangladesh’s infrastructure, attract investment, and position Cox’s Bazar as a regional trade hub. Yet the costs—environmental degradation, mass displacement, debt dependency, and loss of sovereignty—paint a darker picture.

The project exemplifies a broader dilemma facing developing nations: how to balance industrial growth with ecological sustainability and social justice. For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high. As the country grapples with climate vulnerability, tying its future to fossil fuel imports risks locking it into unsustainable pathways.

Calls for a renewable alternative

Environmental groups and policy analysts urge a fundamental rethink. Bangladesh has an estimated 9,800 MW of wind potential and significant solar capacity. Investing in grid modernisation, renewable integration, and decentralised energy could provide cleaner, more resilient power without the debt and ecological fallout of LNG.

CLEAN’s report demands immediate cancellation of the current JICA-formulated master plan, calling instead for a strategy that prioritises renewables, safeguards livelihoods, and protects biodiversity.

When contacted, Professor M Shamsul Alam, the energy adviser of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the country — which is already in stress due to mounting foreign debts —shouldn’t go for such ambitious project like MIDI.

The new government should go through the pros and cons of the MIDI before taking any decision on this project, he said.

“Otherwise, the country will be in tumble,” Dr Alam cautioned.

Shafiqul Alam, the lead energy analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and

Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said, “With current grid-based installed generation capacity hovering around 28,900MW and a capacity of 7,000MW projects undergoing construction, Bangladesh will likely have a sufficient power generation capacity even beyond 2030.

The imported fossil fuel dependence is the main reason behind the country’s power supply disruptions, rising costs and the unsustainable subsidy burden, he said.

“It is all-important now for the country to ramp up renewable energy-based power generation instead of focusing on new fossil fuel-based plants that may result in significant underutilisation of baseload power plants, leading to recurring subsidy burdens,” Alam said regarding the MIDI project.

(Writing by Aziz Rahman; editing by Sophie Davies)