U.S. gas prices could double because of LNG exports
Already the largest LNG exporter in the world, U.S. LNG export capacity is set to climb. New government data sees domestic prices rising as a result.

The U.S. government expects the cost of natural gas to nearly double between 2024 and 2026, in large part because a growing proportion of American gas will be exported overseas as LNG, squeezing supplies at home.
The U.S. is already the largest exporter of LNG in the world, but with several LNG terminals under construction, export capacity is expected to dramatically increase in the next few years.
Henry Hub spot prices are forecasted to rise to $3.10 per million Btu (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, a sharp increase from $2.21 in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That increase will be “driven mainly by more demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage compared with the last two years,” the agency said.
This year and next will see the beginning of operations at several new LNG export terminals. Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG in southeastern Louisiana recently shipped its first cargo, as did Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG Phase 3 in Texas. Export volumes at both facilities will steadily ramp up over the course of 2025.
Golden Pass LNG in Sabine, Texas — a project under construction and backed by ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy — suffered costly delays over a labour dispute. It was expected to begin operations in the middle of this year, but the delay, which could cost the project billions of dollars, could push the commencement to the middle of 2026. Still, when it comes online, it will result in another incremental increase in U.S. gas demand.
Even before taking Golden Pass into account, U.S. LNG export capacity will soon reach 15.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcf/d). Total U.S. gas production stands at a little over 100 bcf/d, so the U.S. is exporting around 15 percent of the gas it produces. But that share will steadily rise going forward, with export capacity increasing to 21.2 bcf/d in 2028 after the completion of several more projects.
With a growing proportion of American gas sent overseas, domestic supplies will see a strain. Rising natural gas prices will make it more costly for utilities to burn gas for electricity, and the EIA sees consumption of gas in the sector declining over the next two years. “The decline in consumption in this sector in 2025 and in 2026 is driven by increasing natural gas prices and increasing power generation from renewable sources,” the EIA said.
The export push is unfolding alongside a delirious investment boom into AI and data centres. President Trump announced a new $100 billion AI venture backed by SoftBank Group Corp., OpenAI and Oracle Corp. It is merely the latest in a long line of AI investments, all of which threaten to stress the supply of gas and electricity.
Roughly 80 new gas-fired power plants could be built across the U.S. between now and 2030, according to the FT. It is not clear how both the AI and LNG export boom, both of which need prodigious volumes of gas, can succeed without provoking price spikes.
Nevertheless, President Trump is trying to push through even more LNG export projects, and he is pressuring Europe into buying more American LNG. But even some European buyers are raising questions about price risk in the U.S.
At the World Economic Forum last week in Davos, Switzerland, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne asked President Trump what he would do if the expansion of U.S. LNG drove up domestic gas prices, according to Reuters. Higher prices might create political headaches in the U.S., and Pouyanne wanted some sort of guarantee that the LNG trade would be secure.
“I would make sure that you get it,” Trump said, speaking virtually to the Davos crowd.
“I think the more that you do, the lower the price is going to go, and what I’d like to see is rapid approvals,” Trump said.
However, few experts would argue that more gas exports results in lower domestic prices. In fact, the opposite trend is typical, and as the latest EIA data shows, the U.S. government’s own forecasts indicate prices will rise as LNG export capacity increases.
The beginning of the Trump era coincided with the debut of the second largest LNG exporter in the U.S. on the New York Stock Exchange.
Shares of Venture Global began trading on Friday, and prices slid 4 percent immediately after debuting at $25. The initial asking price was a drastic 40 percent reduction from its original estimate earlier this month.
The company has now achieved a valuation at around $60 billion, a bit higher than the U.S.’ largest LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy’s $53 billion.
But Venture Global had originally sought a $110 billion valuation, a stratospheric valuation at which investors balked. That forced the company to significantly downsize its IPO price.
Venture Global’s commercial claim is that it is a low-cost and fast-building LNG developer. The company built its Calcasieu Pass LNG project in southwestern Louisiana using a “modular” approach, having equipment manufactured overseas and assembled on site. It built the project in two and a half years, faster than is typical in the industry.
However, it has made an estimated $20 billion on LNG shipments since 2022 despite claiming that the terminal is still not technically operational. Equipment problems, which have resulted in chronic flaring and air pollution, has given the company a legal way to avoid delivering cargoes to customers under contract, and instead it has sold LNG on the spot market where prices are much higher. That has outraged major buyers, including Shell and Galp, who haven’t received their contracted cargoes and are pursuing legal action.
As the Wall Street Journal notes, Venture Global faces risks no matter the result of that arbitration. If the buyers prevail, Venture Global could be on the hook for some or all of the $6 billion in damages the buyers are seeking. But even if Venture Global succeeds, it still will suffer reputational damage that could complicate future business.
Still, Venture Global, celebrated both its IPO and the dawn of a new era in the U.S.
“The Trump administration has made very clear they support growing LNG exports,” Venture CEO Mike Sabel told CNBC in an interview Friday.
“We think we’re going into maybe the best permitting period in decades for energy,” he said in a separate Bloomberg television interview. “And our allies around the world are very eager for supply.”
Venture Global contributed more than $1 million to President Trump’s inauguration festivities.